We cannot capture a story in a certain time, it is like understanding music having access to only two or three chords. They are enough for a song, but they do not convey the meaning of the music itself.

The excitement of a Jewish migrant arriving in Israel during 1948 can be similar to the joy of a Palestinian of the moment achieving a decent harvest in an arid region. The fear of a kibbutz inhabitant at being attacked from all possible borders can be similar to the anguish of a Christian Palestinian family at losing their land to the same kibbutz during the nakba. All of this according to one story or another, happening one after another in a tragic merry-go-round of climbs to the present day.

All the emotions, all the deep feelings of patriotism, religious faith, military aspiration or simply the vocation to live in peace, found and confronted in the annals of history return from time to time to our present. The vocation of conflict had permeated the region. The planting of a prefabricated country in a region without consulting its inhabitants was very shocking for the entire regional reality and the West must recognize it. But history continues its course and the dynamics are intertwined with the particularities of the present. Let’s go by parts.

Israel was cradled or lulled by the Western worldview. He arrived at the promised land with all the economic, military and technological power of his American mentor and they built an advanced country in several areas, becoming in turn a promised land for any member of the diaspora in bad times. Such is the force of the story of the lobby of the universities of Boston, Philadelphia or Baltimore, the think tanks of New York or the most bohemian Californian writers.

Palestinian history was not the same. First of all, for having the worst of defects: not having an identity outlined for the consumption of Western values. Under the term Palestinian, Arabs, both Christians and Muslims or Druze, were included. The persecution, expulsion and even massacres of the first moment have been recognized by Tel Aviv at the time. But the damage was done. Millions became refugees in their own land.

Historical moments engender their own miseries and greatness. Jihadism in its wildest form took root in those souls with the aggravating factor of impotence: it could not twist the course of history.

The Arabs

The rapid alarm in the Arab world, the joint military operations against its Jewish neighbor in herd behavior finally only fueled the flow of Western aid. A moral commitment to the Palestinians was a credible flag and felt by the Muslim world, more than the Arab one. But it was also an excuse for a modern crusade against the Euro-American cultural hegemon.

Through Camp David, the wind began to change when the sadness and disadvantages of war began to make the power structures of the Muslim autocracies in the area groan. Suddenly several wanted peace. Egypt began its decline coincidentally while taking a fundamental step in building a bridge to Israel.

The fall of a wall in Berlin and the firm steps of globalization gave meaning to a search for perspective by Arab nations. Oil would run out and the cash (enormous) had to be used to sustain lasting wealth beyond obscene luxuries. The West became a convenient partner under its doctrine of defending interests without asking questions about values, principles or forms of government, especially after the Gulf wars. Curiously, the Arabs, thanks to a military operation, were closer to Wall Street than the Potomac. That became his comfort zone.

Paradoxically, the most evolved jihadist groups were generated that would become the scourge of God for the infidels.

Israel was a very convenient common enemy due to its ability to give cohesion to Arab society in the Gulf, above all, but also to Islam in the region, keeping Iran on the opposite side, but in the same neighborhood. Again, the construction of the other gives meaning to the existence of almost anything. The Palestinians, for many, are just an excuse and the aid intended for them has never been enough.

Iran was permeated by a different cultural matrix, carrying to the present a Shiite theocratic government structure that owes some aspects to the Persian heritage and looks in a different mirror than the autocratic kingdoms of the Gulf. Israel serves as a useful target to be able to take over the Palestinian problem and, through its armed tools (Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza), position itself as an anti-Semitic rival not aligned with the Gulf and with a vocation for its own influence in the region. His confrontations with the West over his search for a certain nuclear sovereignty (with a clear military vocation) and the sanctions that almost suffocated him economically did not affect his commitment to Gaza and his attempts to influence Fatah (West Bank).

Changes, everything changes

Hubert Humphrey said that «Foreign policy is an extension of domestic policy, not its antithesis.» and a succession of new winds began to generate a dynamic that brought these realities to the region. The constructivists of international relations theories are celebrating.

The United States is beginning to detach itself from its mentoring of the Israelis under Barack Obama. The unconcealable territorial expansion and the flagrant violation of the UN suggestions and provisions on the legality of the settlements leave no option and Tel Aviv begins to prepare its military self-sustainability. Donald Trump, convinced of the need to isolate himself and minimize interventions, seeks glory with a definitive agreement for the Middle East. It is not possible with the Palestinians, but it is possible with the Arabs. The Saudis remain prisoners of the word given by their king Salman bin Abdulaziz, but the others are open to coexisting with the Jews, for a price. Trump adds Morocco to those of the Gulf and pays the price for Western Sahara. Sudan is in the firm, but its internal wars prevent it from playing the game.

The Abraham Accords shook the world. Arab countries agreed to diplomatic normality with their usual enemy. The Saudi king’s word still stood but the others fell in line. Embassies are opened, commercial and tourist lines operate and companies begin to interact. The flag of commerce seems to be the correct banner for peace.

The dynamics are out of control. The war in Ukraine accelerates the management of Chinese influences, only further south of the new Silk Road. The Gulf, the Iraq-Iran-Syria-Lebanon corridor and, on the other hand, Africa are beginning to populate agendas. A resilient Iran but hurt by sanctions receives fresh air from the Moscow-Beijing axis and forgets Israel under pressure from Putin (who maintains a non-aggression agreement with Jerusalem in exchange for not supporting Ukraine).

In Riyadh, Crown Prince Bin Salman becomes impatient and in six months centralizes the power he was missing. At that moment, controlling the price of oil, with the West isolating itself, he reasons linearly. Biden has treated them as murderers and a pariah state, has debalanced the energy market and has tried to undermine his influence in OPEC. He receives Biden with a handshake, just and dispatches him in 48 hours.

Weeks later, the entire royal family receives Xi and signs a 25-year energy agreement with China. Saudi Arabia changes sides, not comfortable with a rules-based world of values ​​that Anthony Blinken proposes after the change of power in Washington. He prefers the law of the jungle of interests proposed by the New Bloc. That changes his perspective on Jerusalem, which when seen clearly is a technological partner with enormous potential for the money that continues to pile up in the vaults and seeks a destination.

Too many changes? This is just starting.

Netanyahu is a politician aware of the virtues and defects of his country. Without too many ethical ties according to his opponents, he is undoubtedly recognized by everyone as a connoisseur of Jewish politics. The word statesman is used a lot in these cases. He was in power and could only be separated from it by an impossible coalition of dissimilar ideological patches that did not survive for an obvious reason that is the reason for the existence of the Hebrew State: existential danger.

Israel has not debated its future for decades, although it is working for it. Israel debates, fights and suffers its present because it does not know if it will exist in the following decade. This implies a priority of security above any other issue, anyone. Geopolitical analysis always raises a trilemma with the Israeli adventures; it must decide between three possible objectives: to be a Jewish state, to maintain real control over the territory from a security perspective and to be a democratic country. Two things at once, not three.

The growth of Arab political factions in Israeli politics has been constant. The temptation of pluralism, just as in the Western dimension, has been very present, but constant conflicts over mistreatment of Arab minorities, clashes in settler settlements with Arab residents or even endemic corruption have always tilted the balance towards the safe: heavy hand and ideological-religious confinement.

That was the reason for the fall of the coalition and the return of Netanyahu to power on the back of Jewish Orthodox extremism.

The long shadow of Ariel Sharon and Menachem Begin fueled the perception of a manifest destiny for the Jewish state to dominate the region and expand. The Jewish political class had resolved the trilemma: they will be a Jewish state by definition and security is a priority. From that moment on democratic forms would only be that: formalities.

The ban on Arab parties, limitation of freedoms for minorities, free rein for the expansion of settlers taking Palestinian lands, mentoring of the judiciary, will be on the menu, sooner rather than later. Many well-known Jews in the diaspora practice ethical resistance, but the force of the wind is very strong near the desert.

The Palestinian perspective

Now let’s look at all these changes from Ramallah or Gaza.

The power friendly to the Jews withdraws. The new powers only talk about trade and make Israel partners with the Arabs who protected them.

Only Riyadh remained, but in the last week of September Mohamed Bin Salman released the news that he would be ready for a peace agreement with Jerusalem. The price for peace that the Arab bloc had set was Jewish military withdrawal and a viable Palestinian state. All of that broke with the Abraham Accords and now ended in the mud with Riyadh joining in.

Iran continues to supply what is necessary, but it also makes agreements with Riyadh (its vital enemy) and also becomes an unknown. Tehran maintains its positive pulse with Gaza, but Hamas’s decision-making autonomy is a fact. I do not believe in the story of a prior agreement between them, even though the threads of power of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Republican Guard move at different levels than the Government of Ebrahim Raisi.

Furthermore, I believe that the greatest enemy is within ourselves. Gaza society, for decades, has been built based on the training of religious and political hatred, living in a failed economy, at the limit of subsistence. This has led to a clear dissociation from the outside world, including from the West Bank. A brutalized population, without perspectives, with a worldview that does not go beyond the separation fences with Israel. With boys becoming men before teenagers and the image of Allah waiting for them when they ascend after getting killed for him. It seems simple, and it is.

Israel sees them as animals that only know how to exercise violence. It is true that this is not Israel’s fault and it is a perfect excuse for a full-fledged annihilation operation, but neither is it their fault, to tell the truth, if we want to analyze in depth.

All Arab countries have said when signing their agreements that they will not forget Palestine, but they have.

So I wonder about Gaza and Ramallah… What do they have to lose? They are already alone.

If someone made a movie explaining all this, their script wouldn’t be easy to spoil.

It should be said… it is the story of a people who could not understand the world, without a future, waiting to be swallowed up by another who believes they are destined for that in their fight to defend themselves, while an opportunistic prince who assaults the power of a old king, an ambitious ayatollah in a troubled river and half a dozen selfish and corruptible neighbors accept their price and look to the side. Offstage, a power retreats tired of achieving nothing while two others seek their piece of the cake in a new world that promises them advantageous chaos.

I reach the end and realize that I have not written about the Palestinian people, about their history, their dreams, their stubborn quest to exist. Nor what a mother would expect her son to be when he grows up in a hostile world.

I have not written about the real feelings of ordinary Jews, who live from their work and their nights are filled with aspirations for the future. The distance between Jerusalem and Gaza is barely 76 kilometers, so it is certain that lovers of both places sigh with the same moon.

I also realize that no one else has done it.

Gustavo Calvo
International analyst.
Host of La Hora Global.
Training in International Relations